On 2025-09-04, Bitcoin rose 4.62% to $80,861 and Ethereum gained 4.85% to $2,501, reaching multi-month highs, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. ^[1] ADP reported on 2025-09-04 that US private employers added 38,000 jobs in August 2025, falling short of expectations of about 47,000 and marking the weakest increase since January 2025. ^[2] Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on 2025-09-04 that he could support holding rates steady. ^[3] Polymarket traders on 2025-09-04 gave Bitcoin a 32% chance of touching $100,000 in 2026 and Ethereum a 31% chance of reaching $3,500 in 2026. ^[4] Ethereum is trading above its 7-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, with the EMA 12 at $2,423 above the EMA 26 at $2,306, and RSI at 62.53, indicating a bullish trend with a pause. ^[5] Retail traders are 72.3% long, while the top trader cohort is only 60% long, a 12 percentage point divergence that suggests a crowded retail long and potential shakeout. ^[6] The bear case has a 35% probability, targeting a shakeout to $2,362 before recovery, with support at $2,408 and $2,362. ^[7] The taker buy/sell ratio is 1.17 with $912 million in Binance spot volume, and open interest climbed 4.81% in the last 24 hours while price fell, with funding rate at 0.0020%, indicating dip absorption and positioning. ^[8]