Nelson Quispe, a specialist at Peru's National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (Senamhi), said in September 2026 that El Niño is entering an extraordinary category in the Niño 1+2 region, known as the Coastal Niño. ^[1] Ecuador is under a red alert for the El Niño phenomenon as of 2026-09-01. ^[2] Quispe explained that one of the main indicators for estimating rain potential is that sea surface temperature reaches or exceeds approximately 26 degrees Celsius, which favors cloud formation and increases precipitation likelihood. ^[3] Senamhi estimates that precipitation will increase gradually until the first week of January 2027, and from that month could reach greater intensity, with the extraordinary El Niño condition projected for January, February, and March, possibly lasting into early April before returning to neutral values. ^[4] Senamhi projects that the first significant rains could occur from November on Peru's northern coast, with the most marked increase progressing until January 2027. ^[5] Ormaza estimated that if current conditions persist, significant rains in Ecuador could begin around late November or early December 2026. ^[6] Ormaza said that while oceanographic conditions for El Niño are present in the Pacific region 1+2 off Ecuador's coast, the necessary meteorological conditions are not yet fully met. ^[7] Ormaza stated that the sea temperature anomaly in the Gulf of Guayaquil is currently about 2.2 degrees Celsius, compared with about 4.2 degrees at the same time in 1997 and about 3.2 degrees in 2023. ^[8]