{ "story_id": "213d27b47b5351b3da05380ad8ee0f89", "desk": "drm3", "revision": 1, "published_at": "2026-09-03T09:00:00.000Z", "content_hash": "cc8a97bed4889565e76e09b62f5f56f74a4d98c679491c09f942e68063cabcc3", "hash_basis": "sha256 over `headline\\ndek\\nprose`, plus `\\n` + the canonical citations JSON when any source is placed, plus `\\n#blog` for blogs", "basis": { "headline": "Colombia Hydrocarbon Study Projects COP 695 Trillion Fiscal Revenue by 2025", "dek": "A new study projects Colombia's hydrocarbon sector could generate up to COP 695 trillion in fiscal revenue between 2025 and 2025 under a high-supply scenario.", "prose": "The Centro Regional de Estudios de Energía (CREE) and RGL Consultor EU presented a study titled 'Futuro de los hidrocarburos en Colombia: una mirada cuantitativa' to the Comité Intergremial de Petróleo y Gas. [^1]\n\nThe study projects that in the high-supply scenario, fiscal contributions from royalties, income tax, and Ecopetrol dividends could reach COP 695 trillion between 2025 and 2025. [^2]\n\nA study by the Centro Regional de Estudios de Energía (CREE) and RGL Consultor EU projects that without reactivating domestic production, Colombia could import 65% of its gas demand by 2035 and 98% by 2045. [^3]\n\nThe 'Coexistence' (CE) scenario, associated with 'dynamic', estimates a fiscal contribution of $276 trillion through harmonious development of hydrocarbons and clean technologies. [^4]\n\nThe 'Loss of Self-Sufficiency' (PA) scenario, associated with 'withering', projects a fiscal contribution of $207 trillion due to accelerated production decline and dependence on expensive LNG imports. [^5]\n\nThe 'Slow Transition' (TL) scenario, associated with 'rebirth', projects a fiscal contribution of $695 trillion from 2025 to 2050 due to solid oil and gas production and weak global climate constraints. [^6]\n\nThe analysis indicates that current proven reserves become marginal toward the year 2035, with a production gap potentially reaching 915,000 barrels per day of oil and 2.834 million cubic feet per day of gas by 2040. [^7]\n\nThe study warns that if a loss of self-sufficiency scenario is adopted, gas imports could reach 65% of supply by 2035 and up to 98% by 2045. [^8]\n\nBetween 2015 and July 2026, Colombia's oil extraction decreased from 1,006,000 to 731,000 barrels per day, representing a 27.3% reduction. [^9]\n\nDuring the same period, gas production fell from 1,030 to 702 million cubic feet per day (MPCD), a decrease of 31.8%. [^10]\n\nUnder a loss of self-sufficiency scenario, the study estimates that fiscal contributions from hydrocarbons between 2025 and 2050 could reach only $207 trillion in present value, compared to $695 trillion in a high-offer scenario. [^11]", "cited": "[{\"statement\":\"The Centro Regional de Estudios de Energía (CREE) and RGL Consultor EU presented a study titled 'Futuro de los hidrocarburos en Colombia: una mirada cuantitativa' to the Comité Intergremial de Petróleo y Gas.\",\"source\":\"El Espectador\",\"instrument\":\"News\",\"claim_key\":null,\"published_at\":\"2026-09-01T14:39:32.000Z\",\"publisher_count\":1,\"sources\":[\"El Espectador\"]},{\"statement\":\"The study projects that in the high-supply scenario, fiscal contributions from royalties, income tax, and Ecopetrol dividends could reach COP 695 trillion between 2025 and 2025.\",\"source\":\"El Espectador\",\"instrument\":\"News\",\"claim_key\":null,\"published_at\":\"2026-09-01T14:39:32.000Z\",\"publisher_count\":1,\"sources\":[\"El Espectador\"]},{\"statement\":\"A study by the Centro Regional de Estudios de Energía (CREE) and RGL Consultor EU projects that without reactivating domestic production, Colombia could import 65% of its gas demand by 2035 and 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